Clapstrings: The GTL (gas to liquids)process in general uses natural gas as a feedstock. It's expensive as a feedstock. But RTK can take any feedstock with carbon in it. Methane, Natural Gas, Coal, Flared gas, Propane, Waste Fuel, Bottoms, Pig Crap, Sheep Farts, you name it. GTL generally is competitive with $18 oil on small scale plant. and using natural gas as a feedstock. The technology is improving and should be able to compete with oil in the low teens with major capital investment. I gaurantee you will never see $10 oil. Too much demand from emerging countries and OPEC will always need dollars. Where GTL is exciting is in its use feeding Fuel Cells. As a fuel source GTL has much better Hydrogen content, is clean and is compatible with existing fuel distribution infrastructure. RTK is partenering with FCEL at their Colorado plant.
I understand your concern about the cost of oil as the bugaboo on alternative fuel sources getting quashed. Think about the cellular industry for a minute. The lowering of cell phone usage costs gave us greater usage and with that came capital investment and then better technology ala 3G. Same with energy. So I want to invest in those alternative energy technology companies that have a similar biz model to Q. Royalties is where it's at. Not plants and equipment. That's why I like RTK. They have their patents very well covered and have the broadest range of feedstocks they can produce from, and are quite willing to partner. For instance Texaco. Every other GTL company pretty much has to stick with very sweet natural gas or coal. It's not too far fetched to have cities completely self sufficient as far as diesel and lubricants with a 500 million dollar investment in a GTL plant. Significant cost savings are in that scenario. And if you want to blow your mind try this: Diesel Fuel from Solar energy.
Now regarding RTK and their prospects. They are finished with the engineering and are now permiting their retrofiting of a methanol plant in Colorado. This and fiffteen worldwide plants they are exploring. Expect CO. to break dirt late this year and pour GTL mid to late 2001. This will be the first commercial domestic GTL facility of any size by at least a couple of years.
I see GTL as another technology that empowers companies, communities, cities, and maybe even the individual. The diesel fuel and lubricants industry is the most assinine distribution setup and has significant inherent added hidden costs. A good example is that no two regions of the country produce diesel fuel with identical properties. If you are an engine mfg how the hell can you test an engine with that scenario. Or if you are a national fleet operator how can you budget your fuel costs. Way too many variables across the country.
Whew. Give me a glass a nade. |
