Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (73210)	9/12/2000 8:11:40 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) of 95453

>> YES, I AM IN DENIAL! but I'm sorry but I don't trust this report << Yes, you are in denial. The extra oil that OPEC has agreed to will not start until Oct 1st. Add 6 weeks and it gets here just in time for the normal winter draws. Just enough to maybe avoid a crisis. Assuming they can get it here... Trying to short at a peak without first waiting for the trend to reverse is tricky at best. When successful it feels incredible, but given the odds it usually results in losses. The market is just as likely to be irrational on the way up similar to the irrationality shown when oil was $12 and FLC was $5. Many smart people went broke shorting Nasdaq stocks in 1999 and early 2000. I wonder how many will go broke shorting Boom 2000+? We are merely approaching fair value given the existing fundamentals. If we have a long cycle who knows. Have you gone back and looked at the 8+ year cycle shown by oil stocks from the 1973 on. We have yet to see the push once estimates get raised let alone the experience the mo-mo investors flocking to our sector in droves as techs crash.

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