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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (725)9/12/2000 8:51:02 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (4) of 65232
 
posted to GreggMulno on Buffalo Meadow:
GM surmises that tech selling comes from wide belief that the promise of the net and new economy might be regarded as far away
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my reply:
I dont know that the promise is all that far away
the Net and New Economy have already showed significant signs
just not comprehensive and total yet
productivity numbers continue to astonish
technology equipment spending continues to be strong

almost every major company is using internet for information in several key areas from sales to production
even GenlMotors claims cost reduction from internet supply lines

I think overhanging now are two things:

1. is Fed really done raising rates?
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without doubt yes... Euro currency is teetering, risking recession in Europe... yield curve is inverted, with sizeable pressure from gap between the embarrassingly high FedFunds rate and 2yr TBill yield... those awaiting arrival of inflation have long lost their following... anecdotally, Fed governors express concern they overdid the hikes this spring

2. is a Soft Landing really gonna happen?
probably yes... but the Hidebound Gang have yet to engineer one in decades... this time we dont have the drain of federal deficits or heavy defense spending... and they do have the technology revolution in communications and semiconductors... so they luck out

just gonna take time ...
to shake out all the weak hands
to wear out the patient longterm holders
to convert new naive believers in inflation hawkdumb

/ just the opinion of a Jackass
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