Great post, Pat. These ANALysts, unfortunately, used to write weather reports for TV stations. How could you go from a quarter where Nortel has to invest again another 1.9 billion just to keep pace with demand, JDSU and SDLI quadrupling capacity, Cisco complaining of lack of components ... to the gloom and doom of impending Telecom spending slowdown.
What they fail to see are the 2 telecom camps at war, where the only way to win is to outspend the other. The first camp, the incumbents, AT$T, etc which don't have the new fiber optic networks couldn't afford to let the upstarts like Qwest with the state of the art equipment, marginalize their cash cow long distance.
What they fail to see is by the time the optical core has been built, the metro starts to take off, broadband access and 3G wireless starts to strain the capacity again. Sure, it's hard to quantify this at this point, but is there any other industry where a decade long buildout is in the horizon.
SDLI is a steal at this prices. Comparing SDLI's price to recent quarter sales and price to recent quarter earnings with other high fliers like PMCS, AMCC, BRCD, NTAP, CIEN, you'd think they're not being bought out. |
