johnd-- If those growth numbers happen, then the stock will go up, but it seems wildly optimistic to me. Do you really think that the most recent quarter was a complete aberration?
As for the case, the monopoly finding is so solid that IMO there is a less than 10% chance that it will be overturned by the appeals court and even smaller if the Supremes take the case. As Dave points out, the MSFT witnesses were nowhere near as credible as the DOJ witnesses and witness credibility is a TPJ issue that the appellate court can't and won't overturn. The weakness in TPJ's ruling IMO is the remedy, not the judgment. The breakup is vulnerable. But any other remedy will still badly damage MSFT. Whatever the remedy, the judgment alone makes all of the "partner" lawsuits which will be filed slam dunks. Sure Dell, Compaq, HP, IBM and Gateway and others have stood side-by-side with Softee over the years (some more than others) but if the monopoly ruling is upheld, which it will be, they'll lineup to sue. And those cases don't have the fundamental weakness of the state consumer class action suits (i.e. that the consumers didn't buy anything from MSFT, they bought from Dell and others). Also AOL as successor to Netscape, and many more. October will be a big month for MSFT, but from where I sit, it looks as though the Company is losing traction |
