Bernard, excellent post. I agree with you, but I hope, for all of us, that the CLECs will bottom around here.
I would think that WCII, having Credit Suisse, Bill Gates and Cascade invest (same thing?) among its backers, should survive.
Also helpful is that Painewebber analyst said he will concentrate on WCII and NXLK from now on. This may indicate that these 2 cos are seen by industry observers as those likely to make it long term.
Hoexter from ML should comment soon, will see what he says.
As always, Barron's hit a very sensitive nerve, I feel I should have waited.
However, just like semis and oil rebounded with a roar, I don't see why telecoms would not rebound either. Of course the demand was more elastic for semis, and the oil price had a lot to move up.
But we have a very elastic bandwith demand to help us here, to help the companies who are financially strong and who make the right moves.
I disagree with Mr Faber: comparing telecoms to electric utilities of the 20s makes no macroeconomic sense and the 2 industries are widely different: the bandwith buildout, which I believe will be followed by an enormous demand and huge revenue increases (when all is said and done with the fiber and data centers buildout), will create new services for telecoms, new revenues which now we don not even imagine.
There is growth here, but it is not here yet. The strong will survive and they will be, like you said, huge winners. I am not sure at this point that WCII is among them.
Hope you did not buy WCII up there,
good luck and thanks for your insightful posts,
Alfredo |
