Pictures of the storm
sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov
Sep. 13-MAR--
[B] NY Natural Gas: Up on Gulf storm worries, storage expectations
By Gelu Sulugiuc, BridgeNews
New York--Sept. 13--NYMEX Oct Henry Hub natural gas futures set new
all-time highs for a front-month contract at $5.175 per MMBtu amid
nervousness over a tropical system forming in the Caribbean and bullish
expectations over the storage report due Wednesday afternoon. At 1057 ET,
Oct was up 15.2 cents at $5.160.
* * *
A broad area of low pressure continues over the northwest Caribbean
Sea, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. Upper-level
winds are favorable for development and this system could form into a
tropical depression during the next day or so as it moves toward the
Northwest. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane will investigate the area
today.
Meanwhile, another westward-moving tropical wave is located about 650
miles east of the Leeward Islands. Although cloudiness and showers
associated with this system are not well organized at this time,
upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable to development
during the next day or two.
"The market is nervous about any kind of tropical storm in the Gulf,"
a trader said, adding that lower temperatures forecast for the Ohio Valley
this weekend had the market worried about early heating demand.
"We might have an early winter," the trader said. "That would give us
no relief from the hot weather down in the South and IN California into
the cold weather."
Temperatures in the northern Plains, Midwest and New England will cool
to the 60s and 70s for Thursday through the weekend, according to
BridgeNews Global Weather Services. Morning lows will cool to the 40s and
low 50s with a few readings in the upper 30s across northern Minnesota and
the northern half of Michigan. (Story .3850)
Expectations of a low storage injection are also buoying the market,
traders said. The American Gas Association (AGA) is expected to report
that U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 50 to 60 billion cubic feet
last week, according to a BridgeNews survey of brokers and analysts. Such
a number would widen the year-to-year storage deficit and preserve fears
of tight supplies going into the winter. If the data comes in on the lower
end of that range, Oct futures are bound to leap higher, traders said.
But even if the injection exceeds 60 bcf, it is not expected to rattle
the market, as it will likely be smaller than the five-year average of
79.8 bcf.
"The AGAs are factored in already, even if the injection could be
bigger than expected," a trader said. "But no matter how big it is, it
won't break the five-year average."
Concerns that the industry will not have enough gas in stock for the
winter were exacerbated when the Energy Information Administration
announced Tuesday that its actual June total storage injections came in at
339 bcf, lower than the 407 bcf previously forecast. End
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