Ian,
While I can certainly understand your point about certain 200-mm fabs benefiting today from PRIA's factory automation soultions, it sounds to me like PRIA is not fully sharing in such benefits, hence the need to focus on key accounts.
While factory automation is nice to have in a 200-mm line, it appears to me that in 300-mm fabs such systems become an absolute necessity. As Lawson indicated in the abovequoted interview, it goes from being a $5 million per fab opportunity for PRIA to a $30 million per fab opportunity. Plus, as the CFO suggested today, due to increased standardization of the 300-mm line and the fact that Turbostocker was initially designed for 300-mm, one might well expect the 300-mm line to have a significantly higher profit margin and to solve such thorny logistical issues of customization as the company is facing today.
Therefore, I would not expect PRIA's full potential to be realized at least until the volume of 300-mm wafers being produced exceeds the volume of 200-mm wafers produced. Accordingly, I will try to be patient for this opportunity to reach fruition.
In December of 1997 I bought PRIA at $28 and sold it a mere month later at about the same price. I consoled myself with the thought that by October of '98 PRIA was trading at $10. My mistake was in not reaccumulating then for the nine-fold rise over the succeeding 18 months. Alternatively, I could have simply held tight, as I presume you did. If I had only stuck with the strategy that Cary so diligently pursued, although for some reason, I can not remember him ever endorsing PRIA.
I made many other seminal mistakes in 1998, such as selling Corning at about .1 x PV. Having confessed such error, I am now determined to try to allow at least 3 years for the benefits of perceived opportunities to be realized. Your patience is a shining example, Ian.
I note with some trepidation the fact that Cary has substantially exited the sector. As you appear therefore to have inherited the crown of principal bull, it falls to me to inquire into your sell discipline?
Sam |
