John Fowler. Re: "This is really about the 4th quarter " My point is that the EVIDENCE would suggest that it is not about anything concrete.
Never, in my recollection, have we seen downgrades based on such flimsy information. Are we expected to believe that just a few short months after Intel raised their capital spending by BILLIONS that demand has dried up? That's what these analysts would have you believe, IMHO.
Admittedly, INTC at 75 was sitting at an all-time high PE of 44, about 15% higher than the highest previous PE in Intel's history. At today's close it is in line with its high PE of the last two years. IMHO, these guys picked a perfect time to downgrade Intel from an investor psychology POV.
Re: "It's easy to shoot holes in one analyst's report, but it's hard for me to dismiss this change in sentiment. " I really don't think it makes much difference, if it's one or three. Their data is all flimsy, made of rumors, speculation, and bald assumptions.
In the past few weeks, while Intel has been tanking, the financials and retail who have been clobbered have risen from the dead,indicating a soft landing. The consensus is that the Fed is done raising rates and the next move may even be down! If this is true, one cause for reduced capital spending (lower profits) can be eliminated. At the same time IDC says demand looks good, and Intel has given no new guidance.
Sometimes when there's smoke, there's just smoke. Let's hope that's the case here.
HL |
