"As you probably know, that management sometimes lack the coherence of stock value, company future and temporary work load. $180/share is merely a reminder to the management, that putting one foot in front of the other and keep on marching, they will get their growth. They must consider the stockholders' value in all future decision making. There will come a time when the write offs will not be there to hide the profits."
Arthur- I was trying to think of a way to put down my thoughts about it and the above comes close.
I believe your target of $180/share assumes that their execution will be flawless AND they care about shareholders. Those are two BIG assumptions. Not that it won't happen, but historically speaking it has not. I've always gotten the feeling ANTC is driven more by salaries than shareholder value as I've made clear in my upstream rants.
That's why I'm most interested in the direction the new CEO, Bob Stanzione decides to take ANTC. The footprint they are establishing with their circuit-switched CHT(fromerly HDTs) is impressive. As you may know this is their ticket to future packet voice revenues when VoIP is finally (after many years of hype) ready for prime-time.
As an investor I look to footprint for future growth. That was why I knew the Alcatel and Newbridge, with their installed base, made so much sense as DSL access finally started rolling out(thanks to Mike Armstrong). In ANTC's case, the CHT installed base will be like gold when packet voice arrives. The more they get out there now, the better for the future. Also kind of like TLAB putting out the Titan 5500 empty cabinets(which, hard as it is to believe, are currently at record levels).
And don't forget, although we focus on cable telephony(at least I do) there are three other divisions that need to ramp also. It's apparent there are no problems with Cable Telephony. But what about Optical&Broadband Transmission, Outside Plant&Powering, and finally Supplies&Services? Do you have any current insight into these three other divisions?
My feeling is that in order to grow the other three divisions(well two out of three), the ROW market needs to be taken seriously. At this point, I don't see that serious ROW push(http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14368687).
"To be married to a management you don't like is not investment. It is constant fear of losing money; get a divorce."
Not exactly. Fear causes the incredible buying opps with ANTC. Similar to the fear investors feel about TLAB. Greed and fear is good for those able to take advantage of the wild mood swings without panic. I still consider myself an investor because of the substantial amount of research I do on my ideas, but some fundamentally sound companies just beg to be traded. Historically ANTC has fit that pattern.
Anyway, just my $.02 of rambling this AM and nothing more. -MikeM(From Florida) |
