Wireless Device:
Wednesday September 13, 1:17 pm Eastern Time
NetTrends: Skeptics say wireless Net years from mainstream
By Timna Tanners
LOS ANGELES, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Anyone who's anyone in the Internet world is staking big bucks that the global fascination with the Internet and handheld gadgets will inspire a huge market for pocket-sized portals to cyberspace.
That vision assumes people will surf the Web on the subway, perhaps check their stock portfolio during lunch breaks and even keep up with e-mail while lying on the beach.
Yet some analysts doubt that these uses for handheld Internet devices will truly lure the amount of money many companies are banking on, as they invest billions in software and hardware for an expected boom in wireless usage.
``If those applications are around in the next five to 10 years, don't expect them to drive usage for Internet connected phones. (Companies) are counting on killer applications that don't yet exist,'' Mario Morales, director of semiconductor research for International Data Corp., said.
Indeed, wireless applications and hardware for cellular phones and other devices have been perhaps the most talked about new technology this year. Top executives from companies such as IBM (NYSE:IBM - news) have been touting wireless Web-enabled devices as the next ``must-have'' gadget.
So are top U.S. companies staking millions on an untested market? Not quite.
Wireless Internet's proponents point to Japan, where Web-enabled mobile phones have been a surprise hit, with teens sending photos to each other and answering trivia. NTT DoCoMo's ``i-mode'' cell phones, which allow Web browsing on credit card-sized screens, have been extremely popular.
In the near future cyberspace will be readily accessible not just on pagers, mobile phones and personal data assistants, but also through auto dash boards and Web-glasses.
Earlier this week the world's No. 1 chipmaker Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - news) joined the fray, lining up telecoms operators, computer and mobile phone makers to streamline applications.
``It's not the Americans that are leading the way,'' Intel spokesman Daniel Francisco said. ``It's not so much the wireless market, but as third generation capabilities evolve it is moving toward areas of Intel's strength -- manufacturing, engineering and the Internet.''
Yet even as many companies jump on board the much ballyhooed wireless Internet bandwagon, some analysts are sceptical of the most ambitious visions.
``Carriers have spent $46 billion to offer next generation services in Germany. Do they assume no one will do anything in real world, and do all shopping and business over their cell phone?'' asked Joe Lazlo, analyst at Jupiter Communications.
Fans of the wireless Palm VII, from Palm Inc. (NasdaqNM:PALM - news), and Web-enabled phones say they appreciate the conveniences of always having Internet access.
For business use, the devices can even improve productivity, allowing travelling salespeople, for example, to check the latest prices and inventory while on the road with a mere key stroke.
While shopping for CDs recently, Intel's Francisco checked from his Web-enabled phone and found one of them cheaper on Amazon.com. ``I think what will end up happening is the way you look at the Internet will continue to evolve as these devices become more pervasive,'' he said.
But many people can wait to log onto a home personal computer to comparison shop. And even the biggest technophiles may cringe at the minimum $200 price tag for Internet-ready handhelds, plus monthly user fees.
In addition, the technology needed to support quick and easy access to the Internet is years away, analysts say. The most optimistic estimates see speedy access by late 2002, other forecasts are for 2005.
Current bandwidth available for wireless devices requires Internet connection time that harkens back to modem speeds from a decade ago, analysts say. Bandwidth for handheld Internet devices is 9.6 kilobits per second, slower than the slowest modem still sold in stores.
``They have to get to data rates of at least 384 kilobits per second. That's when we can expect to see the market take off,'' Morales said.
Screen displays the width of three fingers only allow limited lines of text viewing and can also frustrate users accustomed to more user-friendly graphics and icons.
``We're in the beginning stages of the wireless data era so we're still trying to fix the right fit of form, factor, functionality, the speed of the network, battery life as well as the applications,'' Jim Kruger, Palm's director of product marketing for content and access, said.
Just like cellular phones transformed from expensive, slow and cumbersome bricks, to sleek and memory-fortified staples for the modern middle-class, he predicted costs will fall and consumers will appreciate the conveniences of Internet access.
Once data speeds accelerate enough to allow for instant Web browsing, proponents see wireless Internet devices as an all-in-one phone and organiser that can take voice commands and download and play MP3 music and video.
Meanwhile, many companies may be entering the wireless Internet market now, in order to avoid being left in the cold if and when the market takes off.
``It's very hard to say how this is going to repay the companies making the investments vs. how much is learning or falling to hype,'' Lazlo said. ``The technology is evolving so quickly that it doesn't hurt to have mobile Net technology ahead of time to see how it develops over the next year.'' |
