Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 163.10

-0.7%

Dec 16 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (8563)	9/14/2000 10:40:37 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) of 10921

I think that the fundamentals might be strong, but they are no longer "strengthening". YOY comparisons are not going to see the same percentage growth as we have seen recently. I believe that the current cap ex in the industry cannot be maintained and will slow. I also believe that next year we will have a bear market in general, and that the peak in equip shipments will probably seen sometime next year, not 2003. Look at AMAT, the peak here in April already discounted quadrupling of the shipment rate at the trough. NVLS might join VECo in marking a new hig, few other as well, but AMAT, I am not sure about it. I think we will see $50 before we see $110. But between here and there, we may get within shouting distance of the year high in AMAT, possibly $95/$97 or so. Zeev

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