Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 154.46

-5.3%

3:20 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8564)	9/14/2000 11:13:04 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) of 10921

fundamentals might be strong, but they are no longer "strengthening What exactly do you mean by this? '01 spending should dwarf '00 and '02 should be larger than '01. It most certainly is strengthening, although not at the rates we have witnessed several months ago. I believe that the current cap ex in the industry cannot be maintained TSMC is currently running at 100% and is sold out for all of '01 and part of '02. Yet these are the same cos. which have been spending above the industry trendline. Even with the spending we have seen, they still cannot meet demand. This is due to several years of rampant UNDERspending in the latter half of the 90's. Look at AMAT, the peak here in April already discounted quadrupling of the shipment rate at the trough. AMAT is now trading at about 4.5X their revenue run rate, not expensive by any means. And in terms of discounting, if we see 300B is semi sales anytime soon, this could translate into 30B in sales for AMAT, assuming they reach 40% mkt share(their goal is 50% BTW). So we are surrently trading at less than 2X sales, no means a discounting of the cyclic peak IMHO. I believe you are incorrect on most, if not all of your counts, using questionable logic and assumptions. Your thinking is no different from that of WS at the moment, and I believe they will be proven wrong in a BIG WAY not too long from now. Too many people use cookie cutter logic and assume the cycle has to last 2 to 3 years. BK

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