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To: Pluvia who wrote (996)	9/14/2000 12:12:57 PM
From: Pluvia	of 1766

NPRO Post From Yhoo Re: Ivax or Napro by: bhobbit8 (50s/M/forest cottage) 9/7/00 12:22 am Msg: 17456 of 18077 Why did I not buy IVX? Why second place NPRO? Long term I don't see NPRO as second place. I did take a close look at IVX early this year. I saw a very high PE ratio and thought that if something goes wrong with their generic Taxol plans they could take a big hit. Temporarily that turned out to be true. To me, a person who concentrates on fundamentals of a company, NPRO is the real player here. Compare what NPRO has with IVX. NPRO has the patents, the Yew tree plantations, the mfg. Process and equipment. They have the whole picture. All IVX has is a license to NPRO's formulation patent and their ANDA. They have to go to someone else to get their mfg. Paclitaxel. No one seems to know who this will be long term. There is still persistent rumors that IVX has a long term supply problem. I believe they will launch using their raw materials on hand. But how about after that? My information says that IVX will have the "fill and finish" of their paclitaxel done by Faulding. So in my eyes IVX is like just a distributor. The product is not theirs. The mfg. Is not theirs. The fill and finish is not theirs. The IP is not theirs (just the license). The NPRO/ABT combination can do all of that. With NPRO/ABT you can think long term. Also, my bet is that ABT can out market IVX for generic Taxol. ABT already has a very strong generic sales force and is putting a lot of emphasis on their emerging oncology area. Then, after the fundamentals, I look at risk/reward. There I think the potential reward owning NPRO is much bigger than owning IVX. My avg. cost is slightly under $2. So I already have a good profit. Talk is IVX might go to a 100 pre split. I think that's 66 2/3 post split. NPRO… well remember it is still only ~200M market cap. Tiny for a company about to cash in on a $2B market. Several of us have done the math. It is easy to justify a NPRO price after a year in the market of $80+ just based on sales and a conservative PE. Add to that the possibility (bonus if you like) of a patent infringement settlement with BMY that could amount to several hundred million. For me the risk in owning NPRO has been mostly in the eyes of the buyer/seller. The stock price will be what someone is willing to pay for it. One needs lots of patience to let this play out. It has been a long wait. Looking at NPRO's fundamentals I have said the price was and still is very cheap. When ABT and NPRO finally decide to tell the world what their intentions are for selling Taxol then IMO Nappy's price will no longer be cheap.

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