James, as a sector, the superconductor stock is a wild
card, IMHO. I haven't been following this sector at all
this year because I have not seen the followings:
1:) The optimistic business outlook reflected in the
strong bottomline and topline performance in these
companies. For example, the B2B sector, although
hyped up quite a bit, has seen some real exciting
performance from the leaders like ARBA, ITWO, and
CMRC. The Fiber sector also see unstoppable demand
for their equipment from the carriers and ISP
providers.
2:) No serious institutional backup. I believe stocks
like SCMR and ARBA are at least considered once
in a while by the big fund managers. I doubt there
is any big committement from them towards the
superconductor sector at this moment.
3:) Even if superconductor sector finally makes its
name, the early leaders do not necessary become
the winner. I had this bad experience with DSL
stocks in 1997-1998.
So, as a general rule, I would not weight my protfolio
heavily in this sector at this time (also because I
believe sector like B2B is more predictable at this point).
On the other hand, who knows AMZN could become what it is
today in 1997. So, it may not be a bad idea to put in
2-5% of your money in this sector. When I start
to see the real topline and bottomline number, I will
ajust this ratio accordingly. |
