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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (31596)	9/14/2000 4:11:03 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) of 54805

From the numbers that BB cites it's clear that the bunch of B to B companies you mentioned are very interesting, to us as investors.......However are they interesting to us as gorilla game investors, even though their stock prices have clearly been outrunning the gorillas as a group? I don't think so. Well, the MRO application game certainly qualifies as a game worth following using proper application software criteria. However, the threads tolerance level is the $1B annual revenue level which means that some quarters will have to roll by before that level is approached since the current annual run rate is still under the $200 Million revenue rate. We can't label the various subsectors of the broader space we call B2B and lop it all together any more than we could lop all of the enterprise application software subsectors into one pile. That's not the strategy. If I'd put all my money into Microsoft then I could now make Bruce Brown an offer he couldn't refuse to sing Mozart arias with my private orchestra. I'm hoping a couple of my candidates will foot the bill for the entire orchestra's retirement! Considering I only sing 4 Mozart arias at the professional level, the private engagement might be rather short (12 minutes maximum). Besides, the orchestra is union, so my cut would be minimal in comparison. <ggg> Still I don't think that buying these shining pebbles are the gorilla game. In terms of the MRO specific game, basket strategy and enabling application software games - those that play the early gorilla game are already playing. Risk aversion wise, if one wants to wait for the top candidate to emerge much like Siebel did in 1999 that might be okay. Oracle beat by .04 cents and announced a 2 for 1. BB

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