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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: Dealer who wrote (1410)9/14/2000 10:32:19 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (2) of 65232
 
dealie girl,

I think they are three sorts of people who make large bets at obvious turning points in the market:

1) Experienced market timers
2) Experienced deep-pocketed speculators
3) Clowns -- bullish and bearish

I could give you my opinion, but it think that a meta-opinion is worth more. To wit -- I consider it a time to be cautious. One loses very little by giving up the beginning and the end of moves. Trying to get the best entry and the best exit will cost one a fortune in the end.

As we approached the test of top a little while back we all saw it coming. I think that was a great time to take most of the long money off the table. Yesterday was a great time to take most of the short money off the table.

Preseve capital, go golfing, help your kids with their homework. A direction will become more clear soon. No need to be fretting now when the battle is so heated.

I do not know if I have posted my favourite quote here before. I post it often so you will excuse me if I'm repeating myself -- actually, now that I think of it, this deserves repeating. It is paraphrased from Baron Rothschild when asked by an interviewer how he acquired such riches:

I have found an easy way and I stick to it. I simply cannot help making money. I will tell you my secret if you wish. It is this: I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.

Along the same lines... from Jesse Livermore:

One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world

Cheers. --Allan
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