Andreas, as to the timing, who knows? It can go either way. A great decision today does not always look so great a short while thereafter. Again, I think folks are pulling the price down as a hedge against what IBM said about the Euro, HWP, and SCI, increased short interest, max pain points on options, etc.
I was compelled by a significant and quick retracement from the recent high (without a lot of volume), and incidentally, also bought a little more at higher prices (low 32s and low 31s) to be perfectly honest. Since I don't bet the farm with any single purchase, it becomes easier to load up as the prices decrease, and if it falls, I can always back up the truck and buy calls at the same time, making it easy for me to be ahead since I never need to reach the old highs to make a bigger profit. Right now this is my only position since I am not comfortable with the valuations of many of the stocks out there. If CPQ delivers, it will benefit from favorable YOY comparisons as wells as from an expanded forward multiple and revised earnings, IMO.
I have traded my positions during the last year and have more than tripled my original investment, so this is really "house" money. I think given the present state of the economy we may hang around here for a while until the proof is out, despite favorable ratings and excellent money flow, in the worst case.
Thanks for the compliment. |
