IMO:
The market for components will be divided between the long distance movers, the regional movers, and the local movers.
It takes different hardware to handle the different markets, both technically, and economically. The long distance markets will need very reliable components, since they will be used to cover mountains, oceans, deserts, etc....and no one wants to service the backbone any more than necessary. The components for that market will be high performance, and high margin....dumb actives and plain fiber....i.e. EDFAs (amps), pump lasers, etc.
The regional (metro) market will need a lot of less expensive (medium cost, medium margin) components, but these will be the switches, add-drop passives, maybe the low power EDFAs (so called amplets) to balance the signals and compensate for the switch loss.
The local market will be the input and output ends, and will need huge volumes of low cost, high speed components like transmitters and receivers, wavelength combiners / splitters, etc.
Low or lower cost usually means low or lower margin....but that is in the "out" years....all components will command high margins from the early adopters...
=Own |
