Aqua; we are in agreement. Here are a few of my long term holds and fundamental points at which to sell. I don't believe in numerology, so saying "BRCM is at 250, time to sell" makes no sense. Rather, I would take a more fundamental approach. Here goes....
Stock When to sell?
1. BRCM When everyone has *at least* T1 and/or
full motion video at home. Also, when
your computer does not come with a
larger harddisk but a faster
connection. I could really see
having a 10G pipe into my house
rather than a 10G harddrive.
2. QCOM Sell when someone comes up with
a truly *new* protocol. Also,
sell when everyone has a wireless
10G pipe into house (see above).
3. NUAN Buy until phones dont have keypads.
Eventually, the keypad will be
an optional touchpanel overlay on
your phone (see above for phone).
4. Any optical See above for 10G pipe.
network company
worth their salt
JDSU, SDLI,JNPR, etc.
As a note, I do mention *everyone* because when everyone has all this stuff the volume will go down. When TV first came out I am sure it was a very profitable business. Over time as the patents expired and clones/knockoffs were made, the TV became secondary to the content. We are seeing content and the carrier/medium grow side by side in a sort of painful reengineering process. Each time the network bandwidth increase, prices drop, and new content is deployed. Millions of dollars are being wasted along the way but the stakes are high and it is worth every VC penny.
Thoughts? |
