As usual, George Gilder's diagnosis is dead-on in most respects. The software industry functions by turning its fuel-cheap processing power, as described by Moore's Law--into value for consumers. In turn, software soon soaks up CPU power, fueling market demand, which sustains Moore's Law. The software-hardware twosome is about to become a menage atrois, with the addition of communications. The three-way cycle will drive growth and value creation in each area at an even faster rate than we've seen so far.
I think computer industry shifts are quite dull affairs. The multidecade decline of the mainframe has been a lot like watching a glacier melt. A leading company fails to invest in new technology and ultimately finds
its product obsolete. New entrants might capitalize on this, but most blaze new trails instead. When an established leader does fall, the proximate cause is almost always slow suicide or atrophy through internal mismanagement; not the wounds of combat.
The Internet means opportunity for all software developers--new and old. Gilder is dead-on right that hardware and operating systems will become subordinate to the network; that the network will, in effect, become everything and the only thing. And he's right, too, about the evolution and impact of the Internet and the resultant focus on content. I love F5 for tremendous price appreciation in the coming years. F5 has it all over FDRY. Gilder got it wrong there. F5's technology is ahead of its time. It is poised to profit immensely from the network. |
