NHC COMMUNICATIONS (TSE:NHC) acquiring THE FIBER COMPANY Message Board

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Technology Stocks : NHC COMMUNICATIONS (TSE:NHC) acquiring THE FIBER COMPANY

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To: P Rothchild who started this subject	9/16/2000 10:14:28 PM
From: tony	Read Replies (1) of 856

Since we have the product for the Clecs as much as for Ilecs And taking in consideration the facts in Kaufman research that: 1- Turnstone is out of the game. Their product is only for Ilecs and real small ones. 2- Nobody else addressing Ilecs . 3- 30 prospects or so, of which several major Ilecs , I would say 5. 4- 20% success rate . 5- Average size contract of 26 millions. I come out with 5 clecs @ 26 mil, and since we don't have competitors 5 Ilecs at the rate of success of 100% @ double the size 52 mil for a grand total of 390 millions for fiscal 2001 and an EPS of 1.00$ (156 gives 0.40 as per Kbros) and the target price @ 9 times the revenues is 200 $ (390mil * 9 / 17.5 mil. shares.) Knowing that KBROS estimated target of 25 is based only on 50 mil. (50 mil * 9 / 17.5 mil), and not on 156 mil. as mentioned: Quote: " If we assume that the company has a success rate of only 20% or six new customers placing orders along the size of C$26 mil order already placed by NewSouth Comm, we come up with revenues of C$156 mil." Unquote. Which gives a target not less than C$80.00 ( 156*9/17.5) Any comments?

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