. . . . . . . For Clarity Sake . . . . . . .
Kevin, Thanks for sharing your views with us. They are much appreciated. I very much like your theory that we could already be in the mid-October dip. . .only month early. That would be consistent with much of the major moves of the past few years.
I just hate to hear cries of pain, gnashing of teeth, etc.
I'm not sure to what you refer. . . . .I certainly hope you didn't take my discussion of Market Direction as a gloom and doom prediction. . .as it sounds you might.
For the sake of clarity, I said I believed we will most likely rally into and out of the FOMC. But there is a blinking red light in mid-October which could go either way. . . depending on earnings traffic and Asia. Then November is simply too early to tell, since we need to first know how October earnings play out and what oil does. But November is historically the best month for trader/investors. And I stated that I thought these earnings warnings would continue to be a non-event. . . so I am optimistic.
I further stated that if we get green lights across the board, we could cruise the high road right through October turmoil and past the election and begin to work on those new highs from spring.
However, it is our job to look at both sides of even the most optimistic coin. So if some major companies like Cisco, Intel, MSFT or AMD were to come out with earnings warnings, things could turn bloody very quickly. That is the risk of these high stakes markets. Likewise, if oil persists in the high $30's per barrel well into the autumn. . .we could see inflation fears return, which would squash the strongest of fall rallies. . .and keep us in this horizontal trading range prison.
And if we were to see oil prices actually continue to resume their CLIMB, making even more new highs leading into the FOMC meeting. . . then hope could instantly turn to fear. . .as we would be thrust back into our trading range jail . . .without passing "go" or collecting our $200 bucks.
So I am "cautiously" optimistic moving forward. . . and will be weighing one major market factor against the next. . .until we begin to see a more clear path for our steps down the road less traveled. . .or until some catalyst [namely the buy volume that historically hits during the first week of October when the REAL players return from summer vacation. . .or the word "neutral" used in anything published by the Fed at the FOMC]. . knocks us back onto the super-highway.
Meanwhile, I am fully long here. . .and plan to stay that way unless I see sufficient reason to pull a "U-y" [U-turn for those born after 1970].
Rande Is |
