Yes, I agree that Wednesday next week will probably be telling as to whether we resume the rally or not. If the first two days of the week give us a close within shouting distance of the (roughly) 3985 or so on the Naz, I think we have a good chance of nailing a close above that by the end of the week, and then the bullish scenario should resume. The 4250/4270, is the next test, where I expect the "third time" charm to be operative. The only fly in the ointment for the last decline (which by the way, followed the turnips' scenario, to the "t", as long as Friday is indeed the low <g>) is the lack of extreme readings in the Naz tick and trend, I would have loved to see -1000 tick and the trend at 3.5 or higher, but, you cannot have everything.
As for George's scenario, yes, the "oil complex" (George forgot the "defense complex" and the "drug complex", but they do not have such "immediate" tools as the oil complex) will make an effort to put the shrub in the White House. But, I fear that the shrub is not cooperating, he must have been born with a silver foot in his mouth. The problem, of course, is that the full impact of the oil price hikes will not be felt until after the election (heating season and another additional tax of about $500 per household, on top of the gas pump, $500/$700 tax being levied right now, all on an annualized basis, of course), and that will be another reason to support the current turnip's scenario.
Good luck out there.
Zeev
irrevolute.iuma.com |
