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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1922)9/17/2000 8:35:05 PM
From: Voltaire  Read Replies (2) of 65232
 
To: Ian Stromberg who started this subject
From: sylvester80 Sunday, Sep 17, 2000 11:28 AM ET
Reply # of 53713

From the Anand benchmarks, DDR looks dead, like in dead slow.
Here we have a 50% faster FSB with 50% faster memory (a native pipeline) and the i815 and regular PC133 kill it. How can the DDR system be so slow? Has it all been just a big hype machine?

You don't believe me? Look at this (and remember that is a 50% faster system with 50% faster native and balanced FSB and memory). Is DDR really that bad? And we still don't have retail pricing or even DDR sticks in distribution to understand how much more expensive this system will be. I just don't see anyone in their right mind buying any of these, considering that it is a radical change with new mobo and new sticks (not to mention that all the sticks don't work, and that's just for the PC1600 ones - PC2100 are much worse and won't see the light of day till at least late 2001 or 2002 I hear).

anandtech.com
Adobe premier benchmark
i815+PC133=116; DDR=91; PC133 is 27.5% faster than DDR

Video Studio Benchmark
i815+PC133=124; DDR=69; PC133 is 80% faster than DDR

In the rest of the benchmarks, PC133 stays toe to toe with a 50% faster balanced system. It clearly shows that DDr is dead and has been all hype. Nobody will pay the extra $$$ for such pathetic performance (and we are talking here new sticks that may not work with anything else and new mobo - and we have yet to see any real production reseller end user prices that could be as high as 60 to 80% more by some indications due to very bad yields and incompatibilities - they are throwing a lot of sticks away).

(Note: also remember that AMD is also abandoning 3DNow and moving to SSE2 like in the Sledgehammer - So AMD has all but conceded the benchmark war to Intel and SSE2)

anandtech.com
Content Creation Winstone 2000
i815+PC133=36; DDR=36.2; PC133 is dead even with a 50% faster DDR system. I just can't believe how slow this DDR is. Remember that this is a 50% faster balanced system. Looks like it was all hype.

And this latest comes in from pro-DDR source. Could they be confirming what we knew all along? That DDR is unstable and that is why it has been vaporware for so long?

realworldtech.com.

"One of the most troubling reports, which was provided by an anonymous member of Team-DDR, is that Micron is seeing incompatibilities between modules and chipsets."

"For several months, sources within Micron have been optimistically claiming that DDR would be shipping in volume before the end of Q3, and most certainly by the beginning of Q4. Right now, it looks questionable whether we will see real volume before the end of Q4.

I know that Rambus does not care since they earn twice the royalties with DDR, but the facts are that DDR looks to be D.O.A.

#1 they can't produce stable DDR and #2 the DDR that they do produce is incompatible between different memory and chipsets (what we knew all along and what AMD warned with their disclosure of unstable DDR).

And with the Pentium 4 with balanced FSB and memory only a few weeks away while DDR looking so pathetic with no stable and compatible sticks in the channel and benchmarks that show that a 50% difference is no faster than regular PC133 SDRAM (and in fact is slower between 30-80% than regular SDRAM), we can safely say that DDR is in major trouble (and so is Micron and AMD who have no backup plan). With the Pentium 4 only a few weeks away, AMD will be stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they release a DDR platform early with such poor benchmarks and stick incompatibilities, it will be the worst PR disaster that AMD (and especially Micron) may never recover from. The future looks very bad for DDR. Stick incompatibilities look real and so the major issues with manufacturing and stable PC2100. Not to mention the 50% faster balance FSB and memory that the PC133 eats for lunch. With the Pentium 4 only a few weeks away, I can only assume that the Micron and AMD camps look very desperate. I only hope that AMD has a back up plan or else their future looks very bleak indeed.
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