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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Sully- who wrote (1954)	9/18/2000 2:55:08 AM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Read Replies (1) of 65232

A very good contribution to the oil price/inflation discussion, from Yahoo's RICK board (and a different "RR"): Hi Rachimov, keefecat, protector by: rick_rudeski 9/18/00 2:16 am Msg: 39555 of 39556 I've been doing a lot of reading re this whole energy nonsense the past few hours. I'm certain we will be hearing a lot in the media re this & I'm going to be curious as to what kind of spin they try to put on it. The key to putting this whole thing in context is to focus on the Energy Intensity of our Economy i.e. Energy consumption per unit of GDP - which for the U.S. Economy is going DOWN - this is a good thing. ( Most attribute this to shifts in our economy to one which is more information & service based. ) Here is a good chart: stratfor.com There is also good info re this from eia - see eia.doe.gov. Shows energy consumption per dollar of GDP has gone down at an avg. rate of 1.7%/yr over the past 25 years. Here is a chart from eia compares C,S & N America to rest of world: eia.doe.gov ousand_btu_per_1997_$.jpg I think these 2 are worthwhile reading: Oil, Power and Politics stratfor.com Part II, Oil, Politics and Power. The Irony of High Prices stratfor.com They make the point that increased energy costs may actually be to our economy's advantage. This chart from BBC shows who's going to get hurt, who's going to profit "Effect on trade balance of a rise in oil prices of $15" newsvote.bbc.co.uk Here are some good links for future reference: Global Oil Supply Disruptions Since 1951 eia.doe.gov Good Chronology World Oil Market and Oil Price Chronologies 1970-1999 eia.doe.gov International Energy Outlook 2000 eia.doe.gov I've looked into this biz of oil taxes in Euroland - OPEC is saying the solution is to reduce taxes, Govts there are sayin OPEC should increase productions. Who is right? I plotted data from OPEC's web site "Composit Barrel and its Components in Major Consuming Countries" opec.org tm This shows that taxes have actually been going DOWN over time ( aside from UK ). Curious how the Russians are getting cozy w/ Iraq again ( & we know they are not sorry to see higher oil prices LOL ) - this arabia.com\|28942,00.html suggests Sadam may try to disrupt supplies ( I suppose he'll time it for maximum impact during U.S. elections. ) There is also a rumor that Mexico may soon boost it's oil exports and ship most or all of the increase to the U.S. There are bound to be "talking heads" who will bring up the specter of recession - which followed the last oil shocks, but again: the key is the U.S. consumes much less energy per unit of GDP than it used to. China & Brazil are the ones to watch. RR

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