Hi Todd
no - I havent done any calculations on this effect
let me say rightoff I dont use the short fund, and I do not have any plans to use it at this time - I am either long
using UOPIX or in cash - and thus I have not studied the short fund - others position trade it, but I dont
Tom Veale has posted the results of about two years in UOPIX, which is up about 80% I beleive, and I have done spreadsheet simulations of UOPIX using two times the movement in the NDX which have turned 100k into 23 million over the 11 year simulation period
as for pratical matters, I use AIM as you know. I have long believed that AIM makes it money trading and not by holding large numbers of shares. Then when Bernie posted that message in the UOPIX subject doing the math showing that buy and hold UOPIX would do about 1.5 times the NDX, not 2 x (or something to that effect, I would have to look up the article for the exact number)
anyway, with that article I became much more interested in trying to develop a method to scale out of all shares of UOPIX in the up cyclces, and scale in all the cash in the down cycles.
easier said than done, but I am still looking at it, using 10 day moving average of the Nasdaq advances-declines to define the up and down cycles
as far as Cramer - disregarding the short fund - all I really thought he said was that UOPIX was goign to be a lot more voliatile than the NDX, including on the down side.
did I miss something?
anyway, the objective of UOPIX is to double the daily move,
not the total return
Bob |
