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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (8526)	9/18/2000 12:13:13 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (3) of 12823

Frank and Thread- Just some more very genearl ramblings about telecom investing as a follow up to your nice post.... The real basis of my investment strategy is- SP revenues. Although as you say, it's being commoditized, IMHO that $600 billion worldwide SP revenue figure is still going up. Not down. Hence driving telecom infrastructure spending upwards. Consumer Everyone I know seems to have added first one cell phone per family, lately even two. Some now even three!? And just wait until they are given the option of adding Internet access to their phones for a few dollars more. My guess is the uptake will be huge because of the low incremental costs to them. Add to that their MSO bill increasing because of digital TV packaging. Also consider their pay per view bills will increase as VOD rolls out. Add to that their ISP charges to get a dial-up connection. And then start doubling that as broadband rolls out. I'm pretty optimistic about SP revenues increasing overall in the consumer market, in spite of the claims about free voice on the horizon. Business Although paying less per minute in voice charges and dollars per bit, business increase their service provider bills in other ways. They may be getting good deals on an individual service basis, but are getting many more deals thrown in on the process.<g> The end result being a higher monthly SP bill. ROW The US is the most wired nation in the world and I sometimes think investors tend to take being wired for granted. Also consider that as you point out, getting connected is clearly getting cheaper and cheaper. So worldwide it's almost a matter of survival for companies to get connected who never have been. With worldwide deregulation, it is becoming an affordable service. Since the ROW is not nearly as well connected, that leaves a LOT of SP revenue growth available worldwide. So my bottom line thinking (which keeps me from panicking during mini-routs like the past two weeks) is-- Although SP competition is tending to drive pricing down forcing mergers and bankruptcies in the SP market, ironically this same competitive force, forces the SPs to spend more to maintain market share and service their customers taking advantage of commodity pricing. So ironically it follows that this tendency for SP revenue to become commoditized, ultimately drives overall SP revenues higher. I track equipment spending fairly closely, I need to start attempting to track worldwide SP revenues. That is the very heart of everything we invest in. If that starts to decrease, then it would probably be time to start worrying. -MikeM(From Florida)

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