Yes, I will be out in the morning, and I am kind of happy about it, I will not be tempted to panic. Because we did not turn to a positive tick toward the end of the day, we may have a repeat of the same picture tomorrow, a slight rise in the morning followed by another failure of the rally. The fact that we breached the 3930 and 3830 levels indicate that major support left is at the last low around 3550, about 150 naz points, a level that can be reached in two hours. As for tactics for tomorrow, you may want to do what i did today, i sold into the morning rally (VECO, MVIS, NVLS and SNDK) just to buy these back later in the day at appreciable discounts. The trick will be to see if the morning bounce is real or a fake head. If i were watching, I would look for the behavior of the tic and poassible divergence between the tic and the trin. For instance, the Tick could be down some 400, but the trin is well under .8, that would be bullish, on the other hand, if the tick is only down 200 or maybe even up 100 or so in the morning, but the trin is above 1.20, that would indicate to me that the morning bounce is fake and should be sold. Look also at each of your stock relative to their own chart and how they hold their lowss from today, if these lows give up or een seem to be giving up, bail out, and if you still like the stock, come back in when the direction is clearer. Forget about "allegiance" to a stock and preserve capital.
You know, the NAZ is down some 550 points or so from its recent high, but I look rationally at my positions, and the damage is not that big, apart of SCMR (on which I double up today), none is 10% or more below my buy point and many are still above that point.
Good luck, tomorrow will test many trader's mettle.
Zeev |
