Gore Moves Ahead of Bush in Electoral College
dailynews.yahoo.com
By Alan Elsner, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Having trailed for months, Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) has moved ahead of Republican George W. Bush (news - web sites) in the state-by-state race to get the 270 votes in the Electoral College needed to win the presidential election, independent surveys showed.
Most independent counts now give Vice President Gore a narrow lead over Texas Gov. Bush in the crucial state contests. But there are still enough battleground states, where the race is too close, that either man could win the Nov. 7 election.
``Gore is in the lead but it's not by any means solid. There are eight to 10 big states out there that he has to win and he's not there yet,'' said Peter Steinberger, a political scientist at Reed College in Portland, Oregon who studies the electoral geography of U.S. elections.
U.S. presidential elections consist of 51 separate ballots in each of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. The winner of each state wins all that state's delegates to the Electoral College, which has 538 members -- one for each of the 535 members of Congress, plus three for the District of Columbia.
In the 1996 election, President Clinton (news - web sites) beat Republican Bob Dole in the popular vote by just over eight percentage points. That translated into an Electoral College victory of 379 votes to 159. But Bush is waging a much stronger campaign than Dole did, suggesting that even if Gore does eventually win, his Electoral College margin could be far narrower.
``It's hard for me to imagine that Bush will get less than 200 electoral votes. That makes it very tight for both campaigns,'' said Steinberger.
Focus Locally, Instead Nationally
As the campaign comes closer to Election Day, campaigns focus less on national polls and more on state-by-state surveys, each trying to find a way to reach the magic number of 270.
One count by veteran ABC correspondent Hal Bruno found Gore currently leading in 17 states and the District of Columbia with 239 electoral votes. Bush was ahead in 24 states with 209 votes while nine states with 90 votes were too close to call.
Reuters Photo
Another count by USA Today found Gore with 214 solid votes, Bush with 153 and 171 votes too close to call.
``It looks like Gore has a slight edge in the Electoral College while Bush's decline seems to be continuing,'' said University of Texas political scientist Bruce Buchanan. Only a month ago, Bush had a commanding lead in Electoral College projections.
Republican political consultant Scott Reed, who was Dole's campaign manager in 1996, said he could still construct a scenario for Bush to reach 270 votes but it was becoming increasingly difficult.
``Of the states currently in play, Bush needs to win New Mexico, Louisiana, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Missouri. That gets him to 270 exactly,'' said Reed.
Reed's analysis is based on several assumptions: that Bush carries Georgia and Colorado, where polls show a close race, while Gore will carry Kentucky, Illinois and Michigan.
``Gore is slightly ahead in the Electoral College right now, maybe 210-190. Several other important states seem to be leaning his way but Bush could still come back,'' he said.
Weekend polls showed how shaky Bush's electoral college math is becoming. Surveys put Gore ahead by 15 percentage points in Illinois, 18 points in Pennsylvania and eight points in Michigan, while Bush was clinging to a two-point advantage in Ohio. Recent polls have also given the vice president a slim lead in Missouri.
As states move further into one candidate's column, the other campaign has to decide whether to abandon the fight and shift its resources to other battlegrounds where the race remains tight. |
