Re: JDSU - I am surprised you sold some of this one
Well, I did keep 90% of it, so obviously I have not turned into a bear on this one, but I have been cautious about it. I believe their long term future is excellent, and I even think they will rebound off their current price (that is why I kept most of it), but something is reminding me of the way QCOM traded around March. After a great, long rise, it fell back, based for a while, and then failed at attempts to move up. JDSU had a very similar pattern when the S&P 500 news hit. That shot them up for a while, but now they are back down again. A combination of factors: a very long, strong rise in stock price, serial major acquisitions, CEO departure, it may be time for this one to take a rest. Plus some strange news is coming from them. I think in the same week they said they were giving five managers at SDLI $215 million dollars, but that it was not economically viable for them to increase production (in Canada, if I recall) from five days a week to seven. What does that say about the inability to meet supply?
I don't know, but I find myself hopeful (and then disappointed) when I check their stock price, and I have learned that those feelings should not be ignored. So I did something, a small something, but something. In some cases I buy on weakness, and in others I take profits off the table. In this case I did the latter.
re: QCOM
I'm feeling just the opposite of you on this one. I think this rise is for real, and as I posted over on Voltaire's a week or two ago I have been buying. I think there is plenty of good news to unfold and, as usual, it will unfold in surprising ways. I think a year from now people will be kicking themselves when they look back and see they missed the change to get QCOM in the 50's.
For those that follow chart patterns (few here, I know) it may be relevant that for the first time in a very long time JDSU has fallen below its long term 200 day moving average, while QCOM has just risen above its 50 day moving average for the first time in many months. I'm much more confident in QCOM right now than JDSU, but again, for the long term (and that's what we're all about here) both are excellent companies.
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