How's this for the factors, arnold? ... bullish factors -
1. Oil is strong, it may be bringing in at this point more net foreign exchange than the narcotraficantes -g-
2. Zedillo is a surprisingly honourable man for a priísta, he is an economist by trade, and he has focussed on avoiding any situation like the one he inherited.
3. The foreign debt is now much more staggered, long-term and short-term, and averages a much longer term than in '94 ... due to reason 2.
4. Fox has credibility due to his part in the invention of democracy in the republic ... when Clinton trusted Zedillo in january '95, he was going out on a limb - this will not be the case with Fox, he will have a glow to bask in unless/until he blows it.
Bearish factors -
1. It's still the sexenio ... you never know what will need to be 'restated'.
2. Oil could drop ... then what? .. also, the priístas still control Pemex.
3. Fox leads a coalition which includes a full spectrum of politics, he has on board some quite left of the perredistas, they joined to vanquish the PRI, now they will very likely want some sort of payback in concrete tax 'n spend form ... this hasn't really shown up yet, still in honeymoon mode.
We're north of the 49th here until november, so don't trade on this -g-
Henry and all, this is a great thread ... mostly i just lurk, but never miss a post ... cheers |
