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To: JDN who wrote (35529)9/19/2000 6:17:11 PM
From: Steve Lee  Read Replies (1) of 64865
 
"Saddam Hussein--sent a jet over Saudi Arabia recently, stirring up noises again over Kuwait"

Saddam seems 2 b tryin 2 scare the other gulf nations right now. I interpret the jet incident as intimidation. The Kuwait incident is more complex. Kuwait and Iraq share an oilfield. Kuwait has moved its border in this area some 60 miles into Iraq since the early 70's and the Kuwaiti part of the oilfield is downhill from the Iraqi part. Oil pumped from the Kuwaiti side is replaced by oil flowing from Iraq. With Iraq pumping less in the last 10 years, Kuwait has upped its production in this area somewhat. You could say it is tough luck to Iraq for being "uphill" or you could say it is Kuwait being provocative and taking advantage of Western military power defending against Iraq.

I see Iraq's latest growls as a reminder to its gulf neighbours that if the west were to withdraw, Iraq could inflict serious damage on Kuwait and Saudi. These nations need to decide whether it is more costly to pay for the continued western defence forces (this costs them dearly) or for Iraq to add its supply to the OPEC oil production.

With or without sanctions, Iraq is set to become once more part of the world economy. Flights to and from Jordan and Russia are set to scale up, and can you see either of those countries allowing UN inspectors to search these aircraft? Can you see US/British forces shooting civil aircraft out of the sky?

You say Saddam is untrustworthy but you should not underestimate his intelligence or his strong position. One of my Iraqi friends today summed up the situation as Iraq being the Godfather, US providing the muscle, and the other gulf states being the frightened citizens. I.e Iraq is in control of the situation with the West playing into Saddam's hands.
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