re: the turning point, for some reason it seems too easy to me, but if I went by my feelings I'd be a dead man, so I'm not quite sure what to think.
The fact we got over 3800 was pretty good, though by my yellow/blue line (semi-log, which I'm sticking with now!) we didn't top that long trendline. And, what came after lookeed kind of like a short covering rally, which would make sense since 3800 was such a clear demarcation point.
So...I'm thinking maybe that blue/yellow line, and the 68% retracement of the July-Aug ramp - both just under 3900 - may cause some trouble. Also, though we finished at the high today which will probably carry through at least somewhat tomorrow at the open, I'm still thinking we might fall out of that wedge we were doing today. But maybe not. I still think we have some more digging to do, but perhaps we'll have a breather. Volume was pretty good today, advance/decline numbers were sort of OK (not great by any means) and new hi/lows were not so good at all.
In conclusion: I am semi-clueless. But I'm positioned to make some money either way. Maybe. |
