I don't doubt that the Libyans are exploiting the affair, but their role seems more opportunistic than causative to me. Libya has been playing mediator in the southern Philippines conflict since the mid '70's, and would naturally exploit those relationships.
Kidnap for ransom has been a regular business in that area for years. Traditionally the victims have been Chinese: the military and police have done little to protect the Chinese community, and have often shared in the profits, which enabled the industry to become entrenched.
The Abu Sayyaf is not really a terrorist group per se; it is classified as such because it is alleged to receive bin Laden financing, but it has no central leadership, and is more of a loose collection of bandit groups than anything else. No Abu Sayyaf commander can control any group outside his immediate followers in his immediate area, and even that level of control is questionable (the same can be said, for that matter, of the MILF and MNLF). The leaders pay lip service to Islamic fundamentalism and secession, but the main issue in any negotiation with any Abu Sayyaf group is always cash. Kidnappings are frequently carried out by small clan-based groups with loose affiliations to more prominent leaders; the victims are usually "sold" to the larger groups with more negotiating power. Evidence suggests that both the Sipadan and Pandanan raids were initiated in this way. I don't see any grounds for conspiracy theory; it's just too disorganized down there.
Since the Marcos years the Philippine government has sought to control the Muslim insurrection by offering lucrative government positions to its leaders. The leaders have generally proven to be poor administrators, and the spoils have rarely trickled down; the former footsoldiers in the rebel army have often been left with no opportunity and no employable skill other than fighting, a situation which lends itself to the development of uncontrolled fringe groups. When the pieces get picked up from the current mess, it will be interesting to see if anybody has learned a lesson. |
