Worldwide Installation Of Fiberoptic Cable Shows Rapid Growth
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In 1999, worldwide installation of fiberoptic cable grew an unprecedented 39 percent, and 2000 has started with growth at an even faster clip, says a new report from KMI Corp., a Newport, R.I.-based research group specializing in fiberoptics. KMI analysts expect the growth rate for fiberoptic installations to be 42 percent in the year 2000.
"We consider the jump in growth rate between 1999 and 2000 to be a good one," says Patrick Fay, analyst at KMI Corp. "Every year since the 1980s the growth rate has been above 20 percent. In 1994, the growth rate was 38 percent, in '95 it was 30 percent and then in '96 it was 28 percent and in '98 it was 21 percent. In 1999, it really bounced back, with a growth rate of 39 percent.
"The bounce back was caused by a couple of things," Fay says. "The Internet caused bandwidth demand, which sparked fiber installations. Deregulation was another factor. It permitted a lot of companies to build networks in Europe. The sharing of rights of way was another factor. I don't know if it was easier to get access to rights of way, but more utilities and carriers are offering access to rights of way."
The report, Worldwide Optical Fiber & Fiberoptic Cable Markets, does not find that fiber installations will continue at a 39 percent growth rate or higher. Instead, the report forecasts that the compound annual growth rate from 1999 to 2005 will be 29 percent.
"A continued 39 percent to 40 percent growth rate would be unlikely," Fay says. "There is a capacity constraint on the amount of fiber that can be manufactured. And carriers are going to have to start making money on their services. A lot of carriers are getting hamstrung right now. GST Telecom filed for Chapter 11, and e.spire has had a difficult time with earnings."
Fay says that the growth rate of terrestrial fiber installations is much stronger than the growth rate of oceanic fiber installations. The reason is that it is much cheaper to deploy terrestrial fiber. Plus, the fiber count deployed is usually higher in terrestrial fiber installations. For long-haul terrestrial networks, the fiber count is typically 72 to 96 strands on the low-end, and 216 to 288 strands on the high-end. The typical fiber count in a trans-Atlantic oceanic cable is eight strands.
The report concludes that there is currently a fiber shortage. It has been caused by the simultaneous demand of many new operators. "There are thousands more operators than there were five years ago," Fay says. "And Latin America, Eastern Europe and India are now installing fiber."
Demand for non-zero dispersion shifted fiber is high due to the increased deployment of dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) equipment. Non-zero dispersion shifted fiber is optimized for DWDM networks. There were 4.5 million fiber kilometers of non-zero dispersion shifted fiber deployed in 1998, and in 1999, 11.4 million fiber kilometers were installed. The United States and Europe have experienced increased deployment, and on a smaller scale, China, Russia, Latin America and Australia.
LAN-based fiber only has accounted for between 4 percent and 6 percent of overall demand. Fay does not expect that demand to increase much within the next few years, until demand for high-bandwidth to the desktop PC increases.
For more information about the fiberoptic cable market, contact KMI Corp..
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Just throwing up some market stats for future reference.
So in 1999 there was about 11.4km million of DWDM optimized fiber deployed and if the 222km/RTU number holds water (it may not) from the previous EXFO PR that gives an addressable market of approximately 51,351 RTUs for 1999. All the above is a specious bit of reasoning on my part. |
