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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.18-0.5%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (9368)9/20/2000 1:22:32 PM
From: chic_hearneRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
RE: Rambus

Pravin,

I'm starting to think that Rambus may be our friend much longer than we think.

DDR and SDRAM royalties are irrelevant to us, because they will affect Intel systems just as much.

P4 will be DRDRAM until "late next year". I think this "late next year" could very well slip into "early 2002". There seems to be some issues with DDR as I thought AMD's stuff would be out by now. My guess is Intel's DDR will suffer the same lateness. I also think the estimate for next year is for a hurried design. They are clearly desperate to get something other than DRDRAM for the P4, so this may very well be an extremely aggressive timeframe.

For at least a year, we will have P4 with DRDRAM only. This is great because I ***FIRMLY*** believe the Dramurai are refusing to ramp DRDRAM in any ***meaningful*** volumes. It requires spending on expensive equipment that won't be needed in a year. There's just no incentive for them to ramp DRDRAM. This puts Intel in a catch 22 situation. Big volumes of P4 are going to skyrocket DRDRAM prices. The alternative is low volumes of P4 and not a volume presense in the high end. Either one is great for AMD.

chic
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