Arrow, wow! Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts. I don't see DD like that much any more<g>.
I think the announcement had several problems, the largest being a lack of details. Seemed more like something HJ put together. Perhaps some type of external pressure forced the announcement out early as has been suggested. Second, it seemed to suggest clearly that core business is in trouble. That raises some interesting questions as to what some of these other big names see in NTOP as it sounded like subscriber growth has stagnated also. I had thought maybe T was after the customer base, but that doesn't seem like a real good answer to me. Soooo, there must be something.
As far as the switch, yes there must be hardware, but it doesn't necessarily have to be their own. I have software that runs on all five PC's in my household, some I built, some CPQ's, and some older boxes from various manufacturers.<g> That said, there probably is a switch as it's been discussed on this thread for years and Faber alluded to the CSCO agreement including manufacturing of NTOP's technology if I recall. I still find it hard to believe that a company like CSCO would not have their own superior product, but they are buying small companies all the time so the possibility definitely exists.
I originally bought in for the switch and the possibility of an speculative sector wide run, but NTOP definitely killed that idea with their comments. I know very little about VOIP management software and who the players are, but one of the stories suggested it's already a congested market with several established players. In my mind, this, combined with the somewhat grim outlook for NTOP's core business and losses out as far as we can see is where the risk factor comes in. With what we know, risk/reward with this stock seems very unattractive, at least to me. I also noticed that after all the hubub from CNBC that they hardly mentioned a word about this deal all day yesterday.
Then you have the question of how shareholders will benefit from this arrangement. Is it another IDTC/NTOP type spinoff from a company that is not necessarily held in high regard? Have any of you contacted NTOP IR and asked this question? And if so, do you still get Mary at IDTC<g>.
I'm going to keep an eye out. Seems to be holding up OK today after bouncing off support at 24 3/4 yesterday.
On another note, IDTC's volume has been sickly for a loooong time. I sometimes feel that all that's holding it is HJ buying back his own shares. Hard for me to have confidence in a guy with a highly questionable track record who's buying back his own shares with no known game plan since his incubator idea...and that seems to be dead. I question if he even has anything worth selling any longer. Maybe he still has majority control over this switch?
regards,
sf |
