09/20 15:16 OPEC Has 2.2 Mln B/D of Spare Oil Capacity, IEA Says (Update1)
By Stephen Voss
Paris, Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will have the capacity to pump about 7.5 percent more oil, even if it boosts output as promised next month, the International Energy Agency said.
The 11 nations in OPEC can pump as much as 31.4 million barrels a day, or 2.2 million more than what the group is expected to produce next month, the Paris-based IEA said in a report. About 1.99 million barrels of that total, ``virtually all'' of OPEC's spare capacity, is in Saudi Arabia, the world's top producer, IEA said.
OPEC announced earlier this month that it would increase its daily production quota by 800,000 barrels starting Oct. 1, though output would probably rise less than that since some countries already were exceeding their self-imposed limits.
Crude oil prices surged to a 10-year high of more than $37 a barrel, even after OPEC agreed to the increase, its third so far this year. Rising prices have led to concern about how much more the group could produce.
The IEA's estimate assumes ten OPEC members are pumping at their new combined quota of 26.2 million barrels a day starting Oct. 1, and Iraq, OPEC's 11th member, is producing 3 million barrels a day.
The IEA coordinates energy policies for 23 industrialized nations and was set up in 1974 after a Saudi Arabian-led embargo on oil exports to the U.S. pushed up prices and led to widespread energy shortages.
The following table shows IEA estimates of overall sustainable capacity, and excess capacity beyond assumed Oct. 1 production levels. All figures are in millions of barrels per day.
OPEC Member Sustainable Spare Oct.1
Capacity Capacity OPEC Quotas
Saudi Arabia 10.50 1.99 8.51
Iran 3.73 -0.12 * 3.84
Venezuela 2.95 -0.07 * 3.02
Iraq 3.00 0.01 **
U.A.E. 2.40 0.11 2.29
Kuwait 2.20 0.10 2.10
Nigeria 2.20 0.04 2.16
Libya 1.45 0.05 1.40
Indonesia 1.35 -0.01 * 1.36
Algeria 0.90 0.06 0.84
Qatar 0.75 0.07 0.68
Total OPEC 11 31.43 2.23 **
OPEC excl. Iraq 28.43 2.22 26.20
(*Negative spare capacity indicates the country is producing more than the IEA considers sustainable.) (**Iraq has no formal OPEC quota. IEA calculations assume Iraq is producing 3 million barrels a day on Oct. 1) |
