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What if OPEC was pumping 90-95% of their capacity right now, and that it's not barrels in the ground, but a lack of infrastructure (ships, refinery's, etc) that can't keep up with demand.
OPEC's LT flight plan is pre-determined, and depending on who you read or believe, it 20-50 years of longevity.
After oil is depleted, what does OPEC and mostly the middle east countries have as assets then? Hmmmmmmmm.
You saw an oil shock today when right about 1:00, rumblings about releasing oil from our SPR surfaced. Look at an intraday graph of the OSX, that should tell you.
It's a fragile market. People don't want to buy oil at 36 bucks now, and have it be $30, 6 weeks from now as it crosses the Atlantic and finds it's way to the refinery's, even with hedges:
Message 14421800
If Iraq stops exporting, sanctions or not, they'll take 2M barrels off the market, and we go to 45-50/barrel.
Very fragile indeed. I just got my Nat Gas bill. My cost/therm is up from .40c to .58c, about a 50% increase.
It's going to be a fun winter.
Steve |
