Hi Chris - To begin with, I am not a trader either. And I don't mind LT investing. However, I think you have missed my point. My point is that I don't believe in mgt's ability, or anyone's, to be able to make such a far reaching projection in this kind of technology space. I am not a technie, so I may end up being a laughing stock here :), bu let's take my case one at a time
1. demand is uncertain. Even now, there is vicious rumor of T slowing build out. Personally, I think not, since I think telcom service providers [tsp] can ill afford to be obsolete. That said, you look at the break neck pace of technology changes. Only a year or so ago, fiber optic is confined to the backbone, now, there are talks about FO to the last mile.
2. supply is uncertain. Maybe I am wrong, but I am not sure if BAS is without competitors even now, let alone 4 or 5 yrs from now. To say it can have $1/2B revenue in 2004/5 is being optimistic at best.
3. upon rereading your post, I guess you are also skeptical, so maybe we don't have disagreement after all. However, while you think it is refreshing for ADCT to make such a long time projection, I cannot find a reason why mgt would want to do so except to justify its action. Therefore, mgt must have anticipated investor reaction. Is mgt trying allay investor's fear? Or is it trying to pull wool over investor's eyes? Each one should form one's own conclusion. To be fair, ADCT track records are top notched. So, its history lends mgt quite a lot of weight. Still, my paranoia <G> told me that one should be suspicious of someone promises you something fantastic far down the road w/o much supporting evidence
Finally, I must confess that you probably know ADCT mgt a lot better than I do. So, maybe it is the trustworthy sort, but I am playing the devil's advocate here [even though I long in the stock.]
best, Bosco |
