Intelligent devil's advocacy, as yours is, is a good thing. Wise skepticism is a far different thing from mindless bashing. We see lots of the latter on SI, so your emphasis on the former is welcome.
1. Demands is uncertain. For sure. But IMO, increases in demand for telephone resources is as safe a bet as you can get. It's like betting on computer storage. (And boy, I wish I had bet my inclinations 18 months ago and grabbed EMC instead of worrying that it was getting overpriced!)
2. Supply is uncertain. Also true. But put ADCT's management and sales and production capacity and raw telecom power behind BAS technology and if it works, I don't think 500 mil is out of line.
Risk? Sure. That's the nature of high tech. But ADCT is about as good at it gets. Of course, Osborne had a great little computer, and CP/M was a great operating system. But if you want the rewards, you have to roll the dice. Intelligently. So the question is whether ADCT is the smartest roll of the dice. I think so. (Of course, it's helped by the fact that my stake is now fully paid for because I dumped about 1/4 of my stock to cover all my investment, so now it's all gravy. If I had to put in fresh dollars, maybe I would think a bit more carefully! <g>
3. I would say I'm not necessarily skeptical, but cautious. Yes, I think management may have been anticipating shareholder questions and foreclosing them. If so, isn't that smarter than being hit with them and having to respond defensively?
I don't claim to know ADCT that well. Have been following it for about 2 years, but am not a tech expert, more management/finance/legal background. But what I've seen gives me confidence.
Now watch the thing tank. Would serve me right!
But it's one of the better risk/reward opportunities, IMO. |
