Hi Iso! I only sold OSX related stocks. I still have EEE, ROIL and VPI.
Several factors played into my decision to sell off my OSX holdings. There was of course the profits to protect. Since I'm not in the industry, I have to depend on a lot of what I read. Everything I've read, and I mean everything, says that high oil prices are detrimental to the oil sector.
The government wants lower prices. The consumer wants lower prices. OPEC says they want lower prices. The companies themselves say they want lower prices. In my unsophisticated way of thinking, regardless of what the fundamentals are saying, everyone wants lower prices and that means lower share prices in the near term. All we have to do is look at yesterday and today for proof.
***Important, I'm talking near term, long term going into 2001 may be different.***
I recall reading this board last fall and I saw people here, a lot smarter than me, lose ALL of their 1999 profits in two months. True, they may have earned them back, but that's not a risk I'm willing to take. I suppose I have that Marine mentality that was drilled into me years ago, we don't like fighting for the same ground twice. (vbg)
Don't underestimate the politician's role in driving oil prices down. The politicians will do something even if it's wrong. The perception of doing something is more important to them than solving the problem. Need proof? Name one crisis that government has identified, provided funding to establish an agency to work on said crisis, solved said crisis, and then dissolved said agency since said crisis has been solved. Go on, name one! Tough, eh?
The oil companies may have to eat some profits to keep the politicians off their backs. This isn't conducive to higher share prices.
Let's not forget, September and October are historically the worst months of the year for the market. Tax loss season is coming too. I've been fully invested in this sector for the past 18 months. I wanted cash on hand for the opportunities that will be coming our way. Wait until you see what tax loss selling does to the techs. I'm gonna get me some of that.
This sector is a cyclical. Cyclicals can turn on a dime. Too much profit in hand. The risk vs. reward indicated why risk 100% returns for another 20-30% that may not come. We may have to take two steps back before we can take three steps forward.
I could be wrong, but at least I get paid for being wrong this time. The cash is in hand my friend.
dabum |
