HH, With all due respect to the charms of Port Au Prince, I think you are right on the money, if a bit conservative. I believe the pop will come after the Xmas season and Windows 2soldsand come to ruin, or, no earlier than late November. That being my overall thought, I have a small position in long puts and a much larger position in bear credit spreads.
However, when the fit hits the shan, I don't think 15-20% will act as any sort of break. The real weakness of this economy and the precarious position of the dollar makes something in the 30-60% downside range look more likely, IMHO. And that would just take us back to the high side of normalized valuation ratios.
What is funny is that the going is always rough for those stock pickers who have no real foundation in analysis. They can get a time like we've been through where following the leaders has paid off handsomely, but when things start to fall apart and the leaders have flies buzzing around their eyes, the followers will panic and zig when they should have zagged. I would feel glee at that if it was their own money they were wasting, but, since it belongs to honest if gullible (and greedy) common folks, I feel kind of bad about it. |
