Assume a 30% per month growth of voice subs (a figure I doubt anyone will say is outlandish) from June's lowly 13k number: 1.3 to the eighteenth power is 112, times 13k equals 1.46MM @ YE'01.
Obviously, the growth will not be smoothly exponential, and there is likely to be relatively faster growth at the lower end, and relatively slower growth at the upper, but these are some realistic numbers to play with, IMO.
If applied toward the next report, they give a number of about 27,500 voice subs, which I think will be topped.
Assuming 1MM (not 1.46MM) voice subs by YE'01 @ 60 MOU per, equals $27.5MM per month, or $82MM per quarter. Most recent burn rate was $97MM per quarter, and is probably going down a little more, but say $100MM.
So, discounting the significant but hard-to-estimate data, fixed, IFT, and IFN, we are within shouting distance of breakeven on voice alone, using conservative numbers, by the end of 2001. That's how I see it. |
