I have a very bullish very longterm outlook on QCOM. I know a lot of the GoQCOM!!!! posters think I'm shorting the stock, because I am not in love with it. But, you can still get burned on great companies, if you buy the stock at too high a valuation. QCOM this year should have convinced everyone of this, but people who are in love with a stock are incapable of seeing the faults in their Beloved. So, I won't chase it. I first looked at QCOM in 1998, and decided there was too much of a risk of their IP being an abandoned standard. Obviously (in retrospect) a wrong decision. I first seriously started thinking about buying QCOM when it was 50% off its highs this year, and I made the decision that the risk/reward balance was acceptable at prices below 70. That decision stands, and I'll either get in at those prices (and below, as long as my cash lasts), or I'll miss the opportunity. I think the Gorilla approach is an excellent way to make a list of stocks to buy, but it basically punts on the issue of valuation. And, I think any investor, in any market, with any stock, who ignores Valuation, is going to get himself in Big Trouble (or herself in trouble, although women don't seem to commit the sin of hubris as often as those of us with testosterone poisoning).
(PM repost, with permission) |
