I'm thinking about buying also. Trying to decide between AMAT, WCOM, and QCOM. Trying to decide between LEAPs and stock. All should be on sale tomorrow, as CNBC has a rerun of "Invasion of the Net Worth Snatchers", (commentary by Maria Airhead, music by Andy Grove And The Analysts).
I'm looking at the chart, and (without my rose-colored glasses and microscope), I can't see an ascending staircase. I see, instead, a pattern of lower lows and lower highs, since the April high. If we take out the August lows, that pattern will be confirmed. For a while it looked like 70 was support, but that has clearly failed now.
Sentiment on the semis is definitely changing. Lots of denial still. Based on watching 3 cycles, I'd say AMAT needs to be 50% off its highs, before it's safe to even think about buying back. We're close, now. But, overall, I think I'll watch a while longer (and a little closer).
In January, I posted that I'd sold the AMAT and INTC 2001 LEAPS (bought in summer-fall 1998). For a while, that sell looked very dumb. Now, it looks smart. It may be time to recycle that money into 2003 LEAPs. |
