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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (20637)9/21/2000 10:17:22 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
I agree with you that tomorrow is probably NOT the BK. However, this has the potential to be *the* nail in the coffin. Honestly, I thought it would come in the form of a Sickso warning. The optical networkers are clearly in trouble, and the single most over-hyped, overpriced group in existence. But INTC might give it just enough kick.

If it is the nail in the coffin, it will push us to retest the May lows. Not tomorrow, but next week. If it holds together and we have a significant increase in pessimism, then it would signal that the money creation is continuing to support the market.

However, I believe that we will see a failed hitch develop. We will test the May lows, it will appear to hold and everyone will breathe a sigh of relief. Then, inexplicably, the recovery will just fall apart, the lows will fail, and we will BK. *Then* the mutual fund outflows will start, and we'll be locked into a horrible secular bear just like Japan is coping with.

The similarities to Japan's Nikkei are eerie...

BC
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