From ATHM thread
Message 14431655
Summary of George Bell interview on Schwab Tonight
These are an outline of notes I took. The interview was in question format. He sounded very sincere and straight forward, especially with the talk about CMA and AT&T. Too bad the market is not in such great shape right now. Sure does not help us...oh well.
Open Access
-Two factors
1-Still lack the technical answers. Working on it and trials soon to start, but not ironed out. Will take time.
2-The business model has not been finalized either to know the best course to follow.
He does not feel the government will be heavy handed here at this time.
Deployment
DSL- Has issues [as we know] distance greater then ½ mile, average install time four hrs. Vs. cable BB 80 minutes per sub.
Said they have, “a little over 2 million right now.” However, that this is a lot considering what BB is. Still feels very confident that the 3 million is doable because of great production from MSO’s and ‘incentives’ for them to get it done. Said Q3 will be, “certainly better then last Q.” Also stated that numbers will NOT include any Chello subs for the 3 million count.
Profitability
Said he choose to forego it because of exclusivity expiration in 2002. Wants as many subs as possible to prove leadership so it will continue momentum after exclusivity. Stated that profitability will not happen until ‘about mid 2001.’ [So much for recent financial officer statements about possibly Q4 ebitda +]
AT&T
Theories are nice and neat but sorry to disappoint, T is actually a very hands-off approach for ATHM. 95% of his contact with CMA is by Mr. Bell initiating the calls. Said T is very busy with their own dealings and services and there is not heavy pressure from T toward ATHM. Stated that with recent clarification from the board, etc., things are getting easier. Said CMA and T are very respectful of the ‘needs’ of ATHM. Whatever that meant.
Cablevision
They have ownership of Wiz stores and have excellent local ‘clustering’ of their subs. i.e. their subs are all in mostly easy tight geographic areas. Easy to setup and service and upgrade. Other MSO’s have overlapping territory, scattered areas etc., and are feverishly finalizing swapping of subs to make their areas more clustered and serviceable too. This swapping is happening and will make things easier for sub sign up. This is one reason CV is ahead on install and self-installation. Said ATHM had differences with them, came to lawsuit and now they are in quiet talks to work out differences and get back to a good working relationship.
Chello>
He still sits on board as co-chairman and will continue in this capacity. 400 employees transferred to work on this portion of the business. Hope to add ½ to ¾ million new subs there [not sure if he said this year or next…sorry]
Said in negotiation Excite gets all set top box subscribers too, 10 million right now with Chello. Said years ago with MSO’s they did not get this kind of deal as they have now learned more about negotiation.
Growth Opportunities
1- Overseas with Chello
2- TV set top boxes
3- Distribution over their backbone
Acquisition
Not trying to acquire content trying to enable distribution of content to users.
I.e. B. mountian / Webshots users specialize cards and send to other friends/users keeps within network. To move toward a global network.
AOL
Could have bough Disney for the 160 B, did not buy TWX for content but to lock in shareholder value with hard assets of TWX and for two primary reasons
1- Cable BB footprint, they had no real play
2- Foreign presence of which they had none of significance without.
Self-Installation
‘Some selected outlets’ by Christmas of this year. DOCSIS modems with a CD that user can install…BUT still WILL require a truck roll to run the cable line into the house and actually hook it up. [Assume ingress/egress filter issues ARE real]
By NEXT Christmas, the majority of installations will NOT REQUIRE a truck roll, only the minority will. [But he did not sound like this was set in stone]
Resignation
Family is in Boston. Five years he has been travelling. I.e., today at five interview over, he’ll work four more hours, ride bike x1/2 hr. catch red eye, to NYC by 6am. 9:30 meetings start in NY then to Boston by 8/9 PM to see kids, back to Silicon V for Monday am. He can do the chairman thing because many of the partners are on the East Coast. He will likely stay on for 5-6 months as CEO while they seek a new one. Said it is a ‘gut wrenching’ job. Said many leave to travel, buy a vineyard, etc. not to work as/for competitors.
Attrition
Said it is a big deal for ATHM
Trying to shift offices to Seattle Austin[or Houston?], etc., where labor shortage with high tech engineers is not acute as in S valley.
Said start-ups and prospect of IPO gold mine options have been fading of late but was a drain. |
