Early Options Signals Show Little Investor Fear
By Brian Louis
Staff Reporter
9/22/00 11:22 AM ET
Some things that investors thought would happen after a stock market giant like Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news) unleashes bad news on the market aren't happening at all.
Volatility Index
Today % Change
25.74 +9.25
Source: ILX
Conventional wisdom holds that there should be a flood of put buying in the options market after the earnings warning Intel spit out after the close Thursday. But that hasn't happened, and key options market indicators such as the Volatility Index and the put/call ratio aren't showing investors too scared by Friday morning's Intel-inspired selloff.
Put/Call Ratio
Today (10:45 a.m.) Previous Close
0.51 0.64
Source: ILX
Intel warned that third-quarter revenue would be below its previous expectations, mainly due to weaker demand in Europe. The company said it expects revenue for the third quarter to be 3% to 5% higher than second quarter revenue of $8.3 billion. Intel was getting crushed, off $12.98, or 21.2%, to $41.50.
Interestingly enough, with the Nasdaq Composite Index off more than 3%, the Chicago Board Options Exchange equity put/call ratio has actually dropped markedly compared to Thursday's closing level of 0.64. It was at 0.51 Friday at midmorning. The equity put/call ratio had only risen as high as 0.53 Friday morning.
Jay Shartsis, options strategist at R.F. Lafferty in New York, said at midmorning that he was surprised that there wasn't more put buying and that the market was not down more than it was.
Shartsis said the market's reaction was pretty bullish, although he wasn't calling for a bounce back Friday, but he did say it could come on Monday and it could get a more durable bounce. The Nasdaq Comp has rallied Friday sharply off its intraday bottom of about 3615, and was down 112 to 3717.
Meanwhile, as far as Intel goes, there was some decent volume in the chipmaker's October 60 calls. The price of the calls was getting hammered, off 4 1/16 ($406.25) to 11/16 ($68.75) on the American Stock Exchange, on volume of more than 8,200 contracts.
Traders could be selling the calls with the expectation that Intel's stock won't rise above 60 before the options expire on Oct. 20, that way they will keep the premium they took in for selling the calls.
Action in Intel options Thursday ahead of the company's revenue warning wasn't particularly unusual. In front month options, the out-of the-money October 65 calls were most active, with 3,842 contracts changing hands on the Pacific Exchange.
The CBOE Volatility Index, a gauge of the options market's anxiety level, meanwhile, was up, but didn't reach the heights typically associated with the carnage reflected in pre-market futures trading this morning.
The VIX was up 9.25% to 25.74, but off a high of 27.04 and a mile off the 41.53 intraday 52-week high seen on April 14, amid the spring market collapse.
The VIX rises when put buying on the S&P 100 index increases. |
